In the past, the entertainment industry depended heavily on predictions — especially those made by producers and distributors — as illustrated by studios’ “ultimates,” which forecasted revenues of a movie or TV series over its lifetime. In the digital era, these “ultimates” have been replaced by “data,” which uses detailed metrics to inform decisions about what, where, when, and how to produce.
More recently, however, a book titled Prophecy by Oxford University professor Carissa Véliz has questioned the necessity, usefulness, and accuracy of predictions. Véliz argues that “predictions are not facts,” but rather educated guesses. She offers a simple example: “Predict a downturn in demand, and you may trigger a decrease in supply.”
Even so, predictions remain unavoidable. In entertainment, for instance, studios must estimate a show’s potential revenue before giving it the green light — whether through traditional “ultimates” or modern data-driven models.
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