The present and future outcomes of international TV trade shows will be assessed by looking at the number of advertising pages in TV trade publications, which can also attest to the level of success of exhibiting companies.
If I have to compare today’s TV business environment with ones from the past, I have to rely on two historical elements, and not my own recollections since, as it is known, time makes the past look better due to a condition called “rosy retrospection,” otherwise known as nostalgia. By the way, some critics attach negative connotations to the term “nostalgia,” which derives from the combination of the Greek words “nostos” (return) and “algos” (grief).
The first historical element is the publication VideoAge itself. The second is the size (i.e., the number of pages) of the same VideoAge publication over various decades of its 45-year existence.
By now the international TV industry’s contingent has realized that the size of a trade publication, determined by the number of ads it carries, offers the best way to realistically assess the level of success of a TV trade show and the business it generated.
So, armed with patience and a duster, I have sifted through piles of old VideoAge issues to unlock the secrets of the past to see if we can feel good about the future.
Every business is cyclical — even the TV sector — despite the fact that it traditionally follows a reverse pattern. When the economy tanks, the TV business surges since people tend to stay home and watch more TV.
Looking through the big VideoAge issues from the 1980s, it is clear that when the television business was booming, so were the TV trade shows (with MIP-TV leading the international pack). It is also apparent that the economy faced some ups and downs with a recession that was followed by a period of expansion and high inflation.
In the 1990s, the size of VideoAge issues slimmed down and a number of TV markets either closed or downsized. Conversely, the economic outlook was characterized by growth and defined as a “boom.” However, the 1990s were when the Latin American TV production and distribution companies reached their maximum expansion, eclipsing Italian, French, Canadian, and German companies in terms of market presence and promotional strength in VideoAge.
In the 2000s, the international TV trade shows picked up steam and so did the size of VideoAge issues, especially in the first part of the new century, when the MIP-TV and MIPCOM markets were equal in size. (It wasn’t until 2009 that MIPCOM became bigger than MIP-TV.) However, during the first decade of the 2000s, LatAm distributors’ fortunes started to fade, replaced by those of Turkish companies, which, over the years, have turned into marketing juggernauts.
In 2011, TV trade shows started a downward spiral, reflected by fewer ad pages in VideoAge as well as other publications. However, while the traditional TV markets were under economic stress, a number of newer, smaller TV trade shows emerged and, starting in 2016, VideoAge was able to publish nine annual “monthly” editions (compared to its traditional six in previous years) in order to better serve the editorial expectations of the international content sector.
This year, the TV trade shows’ picture is as confused as the business of television itself, and the world’s economic outlook is no better defined. But based on the above explanation, the pendulum for the international content business could swing into the green area if TV trade shows start to rebound, and into the red area if they continue their decline, with the size of VideoAge and other trades as the real judges.
(By Dom Serafini)
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